Regarding the Sept. 23 Outlook commentaries headlined “What if Israel bombed Iran?”:
The Israelis do not have the capability to achieve even the limited success described in the fictional scenarios presented. They could mount a small raid, that much is certain. And while that would inflict some damage, it would come nowhere close to achieving even a minor slowing of Iranian efforts to develop nuclear weapons capability, much less stopping it. That would require a major air campaign, which only the United States is capable of conducting.
Success, if achieved, would take far longer and cost more money and lives than most pundits seem to realize. Further, such an attack would likely become the catalyst for a broader Middle East war that could eventually cost thousands of lives.
The Israeli government knows all this well. Therefore, any attack such as the one described in the commentaries would have the sole intent of drawing this country into a war it does not want to be a party to. Sadly, for this reason, an Israeli attack is even more likely to occur.